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Employment Projections
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Industry Projections: Summary of Evaluations

This page compares the most recent set of industry projections evaluations with previous sets. This comparison is meant to give the reader an idea of how well the BLS method works over time. The projections evaluations covered are for 2006–16, 2004–14, and 2002–12. For more information, refer to our evaluation methodology.

Measuring accuracy

How often did BLS correctly project growth and decline for major sectors?

Projecting growth or decline correctly

 

What was the difference between the projected 10–year compound annual growth rate and the actual compound annual growth rate?

Projected 10–year compound annual growth rate versus actual 10–year compound annual growth rate

 

Absolute error of growth rate

Projections of industry employment resulted in sizable errors for both the BLS and the naïve models. In 2012, BLS' compound annual growth rate was more accurate than the naïve model in all of the sectors, except for Education and Health Services. In 2014, BLS' compound annual growth rate was more accurate than the naïve model in all of the sectors, except for Manufacturing, Wholesale Trade, and Educational Services. In 2016, BLS' compound annual growth rate was more accurate than the naïve model for eleven of the sixteen major sectors.

Absolute error of naïve and Bureau of Labor Statistics projections for industry employment, 2012

 

Absolute error of naïve and Bureau of Labor Statistics projections for industry employment, 2014

 

Absolute error of naïve and Bureau of Labor Statistics projections for industry employment, 2016

 

Projections' Periods that have been Compared

Return to Projections Evaluation Homepage

 

Last Modified Date: August 1, 2018