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Employment Projections

Macro Projections: Summary of Evaluations

Gross Domestic Product, historical and Bureau of Labor Statistics projections

Year

Actual

Potential

Projected 2006-16

Projected 2004-14

Projected 2002-12

1994

9905.4

10045.1

1995

10174.8

10322.1

1996

10561.0

10631.4

1997

11034.9

11008.7

1998

11525.9

11453.5

1999

12065.9

11939.0

2000

12559.7

12437.8

2001

12682.2

12891.7

2002

12908.8

13269.4

12908.8

2003

13271.1

13613.0

13277.6

2004

13773.5

13959.5

13773.5

13646.4

2005

14234.2

14304.7

14146.1

14015.2

2006

14613.8

14609.2

14613.8

14518.7

14384.0

2007

14873.7

14887.5

15184.6

14891.4

14752.8

2008

14830.4

15159.5

15755.4

15264.0

15121.6

2009

14418.7

15380.4

16326.2

15636.6

15490.4

2010

14783.8

15535.9

16897.0

16009.2

15859.2

2011

15020.6

15703.0

17467.8

16381.8

16227.9

2012

15354.6

15905.5

18038.6

16754.5

16596.7

2013

15612.2

16137.4

18609.4

17127.1

2014

16013.3

16386.4

19180.2

17499.7

2015

16471.5

16658.3

19751.0

2016

16716.2

16939.9

20321.8

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics; Congressional Budget Office; and 2002–12, 2004–14, and 2006–16 Bureau of Labor Statistics Projections.

Data as of April 11, 2018.

Note: Dashed lines represent the inter–year trend from base year to target year projection. Inter–year data is not projected by BLS.

Unemplyment rate

Year

Actual

Potential (NAIRU)

Projected 2006–16

Projected 2004–14

Projected 2002–12

1994

6.1

5.4

1995

5.6

5.3

1996

5.4

5.2

1997

4.9

5.1

1998

4.5

5.1

1999

4.2

5.0

2000

4.0

5.0

2001

4.7

5.0

2002

5.8

5.0

2003

6.0

5.0

2004

5.5

5.0

2005

5.1

5.0

2006

4.6

5.0

2007

4.6

4.9

2008

5.8

4.9

2009

9.3

4.9

2010

9.6

5.0

2011

8.9

5.1

2012

8.1

5.0

5.2

2013

7.4

4.9

2014

6.2

4.8

5.0

2015

5.3

4.7

2016

4.9

4.6

5.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey; Congressional Budget Office; and 2002–12, 2004–14, and 2006–16 Bureau of Labor Statistics Projections.

Data as of April 11, 2018.

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Last Modified Date: August 1, 2018