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Current Employment Statistics - CES (National)

CES National Benchmark Article (PDF)

BLS Establishment Survey National Estimates Revised to Incorporate March 2021 Benchmarks

Authored by Caitlin Patrick and Marcus Polite.

Caitlin Patrick and Marcus Polite are economists in the Division of Current Employment Statistics – National, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Telephone: (202) 691‑6555; email: Contact CES

Summary of the revisions

With the release of January 2022 data on February 4, 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its annual revision to national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments.

The March 2021 benchmarked seasonally adjusted employment level for total nonfarm employment is 144,431,000. The not seasonally adjusted benchmarked employment level is 143,308,000.

Compared with the sample-based, seasonally adjusted published estimate for March 2021, total nonfarm employment had a revision of 374,000 or 0.3 percent. The not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment estimate was revised by −7,000 or less than 0.05 percent.

Table 1 presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January 2021 through December 2021. The revised data for April 2021 forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark employment level, as well as updated net birth-death model forecasts and new seasonal adjustment factors. Revisions to November and December also reflect incorporation of additional sample receipts. For more information about the methodology of benchmarking in the CES program, see the CES Technical Notes available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section7b.

Table 1. Differences in seasonally adjusted levels and over-the-month changes, total nonfarm employment, January to December 2021 (in thousands)
2021 Levels Over-the-month changes
As Revised As Previously Published Difference As Revised As Previously Published Difference

January

143,017 142,736 281 520 233 287

February

143,727 143,272 455 710 536 174

March

144,431 144,057 374 704 785 -81

April

144,694 144,326 368 263 269 -6

May

145,141 144,940 201 447 614 -167

June

145,698 145,902 -204 557 962 -405

July

146,387 146,993 -606 689 1,091 -402

August

146,904 147,476 -572 517 483 34

September

147,328 147,855 -527 424 379 45

October

148,005 148,503 -498 677 648 29

November

148,652 148,752 -100 647 249 398

December (p)

149,162 148,951 211 510 199 311

Footnotes
(p) Preliminary

Overview

Establishment survey benchmarking is done each year to align employment estimates from the survey with employment counts derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI). All employers covered by UI laws are required to report employment and wage information to the appropriate state UI agency four times per year. About 97 percent of total nonfarm employment within the scope of the establishment survey is covered by UI. The UI data are obtained and edited by each state’s Labor Market Information agency. They are tabulated and published through the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. Both the QCEW and CES categorize their data using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).

An employment count for the remaining 3 percent is constructed from other sources, primarily records from the Railroad Retirement Board and Census Bureau data from County Business Patterns and the Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll. This 3 percent is referred to as noncovered employment. The combination of QCEW and noncovered employment data make up the benchmark level. The full benchmark employment level developed for March replaces the March sample-based estimate for each basic cell.

The total annual revision is the difference between the benchmark level for a given March and the published March sample-based employment estimate. The overall accuracy of the establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of the benchmark revision, which is often regarded as a proxy for total survey error. Typically, the total revision is equal to the benchmark revision, but in years with historical reconstructions, affected CES series are re-estimated prior to benchmarking. The benchmark revision, in these cases, is the difference between the benchmark level and the newly reconstructed sample-based estimate. The benchmark revision is the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own error sources.

In order to create a continuous time series between the new March benchmark level and historical sample-based data from the prior March benchmark level, employment estimates for the months between the most recent March benchmark and the previous year's benchmark are adjusted using a linear "wedge-back" procedure. This procedure assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. For the 9 months following the March benchmark (also called the post-benchmark period), BLS applies previously derived over-the-month sample changes to the revised March level to get the revised estimates. New net birth-death model forecasts are also calculated and applied during post-benchmark estimation. More information on benchmarks in the CES program is available in the Benchmarks section of the CES Technical Notes and in the October 2017 Monthly Labor Review, "Benchmarking the Current Employment Statistics National Estimates."

Seasonally adjusted estimates

BLS seasonally adjusts 5 years of CES data with each annual benchmark for all industries and directly estimated data types. However, reconstructed series are seasonally adjusted over their revised time spans if the revised timespan is greater than 5 years. Details about seasonal adjustment during the 2021 benchmark are described below.

Seasonal adjustment changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Selecting outliers, or any data points that fall outside of the normal monthly values, is a standard part of seasonally adjusting any time series. Until the 2021 benchmark, BLS included only point outliers in its annual seasonal adjustment processing. With the 2021 benchmark, BLS decided to use additional types of outliers to better account for seasonal patterns without removing the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. For more information about the changes to CES seasonal adjustment outlier selection, see the Recent Outliers section of the CES Technical Notes.

For technical information on how seasonal adjustment is performed in the CES program, see the Seasonal Adjustment section of the CES Technical Notes.

For information on seasonal adjustment model specifications and special model adjustments, see the CES Seasonal Adjustment Files and Documentation page.

Seasonally adjusted revisions

Table 2 presents revised employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for March 2021 by major industry sector. The revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is 374,000.

Table 2. Seasonally adjusted employment revisions for major industry sectors, March 2021 (in thousands)
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title As Revised As Previously Published Differences
Amount Percent

00-000000

Total nonfarm 144,431 144,057 374 0.3

05-000000

Total private 122,572 122,515 57 (1)

06-000000

Goods-producing 20,227 20,360 -133 -0.7

07-000000

Service-providing 124,204 123,697 507 0.4

08-000000

Private service-providing 102,345 102,155 190 0.2

10-000000

Mining and logging 551 613 -62 -11.3

20-000000

Construction 7,408 7,448 -40 -0.5

30-000000

Manufacturing 12,268 12,299 -31 -0.3

31-000000

Durable goods 7,626 7,636 -10 -0.1

32-000000

Nondurable goods 4,642 4,663 -21 -0.5

40-000000

Trade, transportation, and utilities 27,503 27,186 317 1.2

41-420000(2)

Wholesale trade 5,635.5 5,658.0 -22.5 -0.4

42-000000(2)

Retail trade 15,328.6 15,234.6 94.0 0.6

43-000000(2)

Transportation and warehousing 5,995.8 5,753.1 242.7 4

44-220000(2)

Utilities 542.7 539.8 2.9 0.5

50-000000

Information 2,768 2,683 85 3.1

55-000000

Financial activities 8,733 8,787 -54 -0.6

60-000000

Professional and business services 21,021 20,807 214 1

65-000000

Education and health services 23,541 23,396 145 0.6

70-000000

Leisure and hospitality 13,423 13,757 -334 -2.5

80-000000

Other services 5,356 5,539 -183 -3.4

90-000000

Government 21,859 21,542 317 1.5
Footnotes

(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.
(2) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

Not seasonally adjusted estimates

Benchmark employment levels for March are compared to CES estimates that have not been seasonally adjusted to calculate the new March employment level. Twenty-one months of not seasonally adjusted CES estimates for all data types are revised based on this new March level, prior to seasonal adjustment. Revisions to not seasonally adjusted CES estimates are described below.

Not seasonally adjusted revisions

Table 3 presents the employment benchmarks for March 2021, not seasonally adjusted, by major industry sector. The total revision to not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is −7,000.

Table 3. Not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for major industry sectors, March 2021 (in thousands)
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Benchmark Estimate Differences
Amount Percent
00-000000 Total nonfarm 143,308 143,315 -7 (1)
05-000000 Total private 121,165 121,421 -256 -0.2
06-000000 Goods-producing 19,934 20,080 -146 -0.7
07-000000 Service-providing 123,374 123,235 139 0.1
08-000000 Private service-providing 101,231 101,341 -110 -0.1
10-000000 Mining and logging 547 610 -63 -11.5
20-000000 Construction 7,162 7,203 -41 -0.6
30-000000 Manufacturing 12,225 12,267 -42 -0.3
31-000000 Durable goods 7,609 7,630 -21 -0.3
32-000000 Nondurable goods 4,616 4,637 -21 -0.5
40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 27,204 26,897 307 1.1
41-420000 Wholesale trade 5,609.3 5,632.9 -23.6 -0.4
42-000000 Retail trade 15,099.1 15,041.2 57.9 0.4
43-000000 Transportation and warehousing 5,953.7 5,683.6 270.1 4.5
44-220000 Utilities 542.1 539.3 2.8 0.5
50-000000 Information 2,759 2,675 84 3.0
55-000000 Financial activities 8,686 8,750 -64 -0.7
60-000000 Professional and business services 20,767 20,549 218 1.0
65-000000 Education and health services 23,643 23,518 125 0.5
70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 12,876 13,448 -572 -4.4
80-000000 Other services 5,296 5,504 -208 -3.9
90-000000 Government 22,143 21,894 249 1.1
Footnotes

(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.

Benchmarks for more detailed industries are available on the CES detailed industry tables page.

Table 4 below shows the recent history of not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm percent and level benchmark revisions. Over the prior 10 years, the annual benchmark revision at the total nonfarm level has averaged 0.1 percent (in absolute terms), with a range of −0.3 percent to 0.3 percent.

The differences listed in table 4 and beyond reflect the error due to normal benchmarking procedures after the incorporation of reconstructions. Those years are footnoted.

Table 4. Percent and level differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry supersector (thousands), March 2011 to 2021
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Type 2011 (1) 2012 2013 (2) 2014 2015 (3) 2016 2017 (4) 2018 (5) 2019 (6) 2020 2021

00-000000

Total nonfarm Percent 0.1 0.3 -0.1 (7) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 (7) -0.3 -0.1 (7)
Level 162 424 -119 67 -172 -81 135 -16 -489 -121 -7

05-000000

Total private Percent 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2
Level 134 481 -126 105 -232 -151 133 -104 -505 -184 -256

10-000000

Mining and logging Percent -0.4 1.6 -1.2 -1.8 -2.2 -3.2 -4.6 -1.1 -2.1 -4 -11.5
Level -3 13 -10 -16 -19 -22 -30 -8 -15 -27 -63

20-000000

Construction Percent -0.5 1.8 0.3 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 -0.1 (7) -0.6
Level -26 93 14 90 39 47 52 44 -4 2 -41

30-000000

Manufacturing Percent 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.1 (7) -0.6 -0.3
Level 9 -25 23 43 -12 58 15 -18 -4 -75 -42

40-000000

Trade, transportation, and utilities Percent 0.4 0.6 -0.5 -0.1 (7) -0.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 1.1
Level 95 145 -131 -31 -5 -110 75 -77 -117 24 307

41-420000(8)

Wholesale trade Percent -0.2 0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -1.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4
Level -13.1 45.3 -20.2 -45.4 -41.3 -66.6 -21.2 -54.4 -38.6 -48 -23.6

42-000000(8)

Retail trade Percent 0.6 0.5 -0.8 (7) -0.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.6 -1 -0.5 0.4
Level 83.8 78.9 -110.3 5.5 -23.5 -118.2 15.4 -96.4 -150.8 -78.3 57.9

43-000000(8)

Transportation and warehousing Percent 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 2.6 4.5
Level 22.4 29.4 3.6 9.7 65.3 83.5 79.8 72.7 75.8 148.9 270.1

44-220000(8)

Utilities Percent 0.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 -0.8 -1.6 0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.2 0.5
Level 2.8 -8.5 -4.6 -0.6 -4.7 -8.7 1 1.8 -4.1 1.1 2.8

50-000000

Information Percent -0.4 1.8 -0.2 2.4 -1.6 -0.1 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.5 3
Level -12 47 -5 66 -44 -2 70 59 35 14 84

55-000000

Financial activities Percent 0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 (7) 0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.3 -0.7
Level 69 45 -10 19 -9 -4 7 -12 68 25 -64

60-000000

Professional and business services Percent 0.7 (7) (7) -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -1.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 1
Level 125 2 4 -147 -110 -125 -270 -72 -159 -123 218

65-000000

Education and health services Percent -0.5 (7) -0.3 -0.1 (7) -0.4 0.3 (7) -0.4 -0.2 0.5
Level -108 -2 -61 -16 -7 -83 70 5 -95 -47 125

70-000000

Leisure and hospitality Percent 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 (7) -1.1 0.2 -4.4
Level 93 104 72 38 -45 102 126 -4 -170 31 -572

80-000000

Other services Percent -2 1.1 -0.4 1.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.1 -3.9
Level -108 59 -22 59 -20 -12 18 -21 -44 -8 -208

90-000000

Government Percent 0.1 -0.3 (7) -0.2 0.3 0.3 (7) 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.1
Level 28 -57 7 -38 60 70 2 88 16 63 249

Footnotes:
(1) A review of industries for the possible presence of noncovered employment yielded 13 additional industries. As a result of including these industries, employment in the amount of 95,000 was added to the benchmark nonfarm level. For more information, see the Changes to noncovered employment section of the 2011 Benchmark Article.
(2) With the 2013 benchmark, CES reconstructed several national employment series. Each first quarter, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, whose data account for approximately 97 percent of the CES universe scope (see The Sample section of the CES Technical Notes), incorporates updated industry assignments. In 2013, these updates included two substantial groups of nonrandom, noneconomic code changes, one to funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles (NAICS 525), and the other, a reclassification of approximately 466,000 in employment from private households (NAICS 814), which is out of scope for CES, to services for the elderly and persons with disabilities (NAICS 62412), which is in scope. These changes also had an impact, beyond what would be considered typical for a given benchmark year, on corresponding CES series. For more information about the changes to these industries, see the QCEW First Quarter 2013 News Release or the Special notice regarding reconstructed data section in the 2013 CES Benchmark Article.
(3) With the 2015 benchmark, CES reconstructed the national employment series 65-624120, services for the elderly and persons with disabilities back to January 2000. CES previously reconstructed this series with the 2013 benchmark; however, between the 2013 and 2015 benchmark, a better source of information for the employment within NAICS 62412 for the state of California was found. The inclusion of the reconstructed series resulted in total nonfarm and total private employment that was 27,000 less than the originally published March 2015 estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2015 estimate level is −199,000 or −0.1 percent. This table displays March 2015 data after accounting for the decrease of 27,000 from the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the education and health services supersector, this table displays March 2015 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more information about this reconstruction, see the Reconstruction section of the 2015 Benchmark Article.
(4) With the 2017 benchmark, CES reconstructed the national employment series 60-561613, security guards and patrols and armored car services back to October 2016 to correct a microdata error. The inclusion of the reconstructed series resulted in total nonfarm and total private employment that was 3,000 more than the originally published March 2017 estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2017 estimate level is 138,000 or 0.1 percent. This table displays March 2017 data after accounting for the increase of 3,000 from the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the professional and business services supersector, this table displays March 2017 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2017 Benchmark Article.
(5) With the 2018 benchmark, CES reconstructed several national employment series. A recoding effort in the QCEW resulted in about 336,000 employment in wholesale trade agents and brokers (41-425120) moved into other series within the wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and professional and business services major industry sectors. Affected basic-level series were reconstructed for their entire history, generally back to January 1990. Additionally, a reclassification of a state employer to private ownership caused a shift of about 17,000 employment from the CES series other state government (90-922999) into services for the elderly and persons with disabilities (65-624120). Affected basic-level series were reconstructed from March 2018 back to January 2018. For more information about this reconstruction, see the Reconstruction section in the 2018 CES Benchmark Article.
(6) With the 2019 benchmark, BLS reconstructed some national employment series in transportation to correct an error in rail transportation (43-482000), which had resulted in 16,000 in employment being double counted. The reconstruction removed the doubled-counted employment and affected aggregates of rail transportation, up to and including total nonfarm, back to January 1990. While the difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2019 estimate level is −505,000, or −0.3 percent, this table displays March 2019 data after accounting for the removal of 16,000 from the published series. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2019 CES Benchmark Article.
(7) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.
(8) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

Benchmark revision effects for other data types

Benchmarking also affects the series for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) and women employees (WE). There are no benchmark employment levels for these series; they are revised by preserving ratios of employment for the particular data type to the all employee (AE) level prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised all employee level. These figures are calculated at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary estimates. Average weekly hours (AWH), average hourly earnings (AHE), and, in manufacturing industries, average weekly overtime hours (AWOH) are not benchmarked; they are estimated solely from reports supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell level. New employment benchmarks can additionally affect indirectly estimated data types. For more information on indirectly estimated data types, see the Available Data section in the CES Technical Notes.

Table 5 lists directly estimated data types and their common abbreviations. Directly estimated data types except for AE are collectively called non-AE data types.

Table 5. Directly estimated data types
Data Type Abbreviation
All employees AE
Production and nonsupervisory employees PE
Women employees WE
Average weekly hours of all employees AE AWH
Average hourly earnings of all employees AE AHE
Average weekly overtime hours of all employees AE AWOH
Average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AWH
Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AHE
Average weekly overtime hours of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AWOH

The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings series are derived as a weighted average. AE and PE estimates for basic cells act as weights for their respective hours and earnings estimates for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of AE estimates to new benchmarks may alter the implicit weights used for both AE and PE hours and earnings, which, in turn, may change the estimates for both AE and PE hours and earnings at higher levels of aggregation.

Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect on hours and earnings estimates for major industry groupings. To influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader industry group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and must affect industries that have hours or earnings averages that are substantially different from those of other industries in their broader group.

Table 6 and table 7 provide information on the not seasonally adjusted levels of major industry sector hours and earnings series resulting from the March 2021 benchmark. At the total private level, there was no change in average weekly hours estimates for AE and average weekly hours for PE increased by 0.1 hours from the previously published level. Total private average hourly earnings increased by 8 cents for AE and PE from the previously published level.

Benchmark effects on hours and earnings for more detailed industries are available on the CES detailed industry tables page.

Table 6. Effect of March 2021 benchmark revisions to all employees average weekly hours and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings
Estimated Revised Difference Estimated Revised Difference

05-000000

Total private

34.7 34.7 0.0 $29.95 $30.03 $0.08

06-000000

Goods-producing

40.1 40 -0.1 30.39 30.35 -0.04

08-000000

Private service-providing

33.6 33.7 0.1 29.85 29.95 0.10

10-000000

Mining and logging

45.1 45 -0.1 34.72 34.45 -0.27

20-000000

Construction

39 39 0.0 32.20 32.16 -0.04

30-000000

Manufacturing

40.4 40.4 0.0 29.12 29.12 0.00

31-000000

Durable goods

40.7 40.7 0.0 30.60 30.57 -0.03

32-000000

Nondurable goods

39.9 40 0.1 26.62 26.68 0.06

40-000000

Trade, transportation, and utilities

34.1 34.2 0.1 25.74 25.71 -0.03

41-420000

Wholesale trade

38.8 38.8 0.0 32.94 32.97 0.03

42-000000

Retail trade

30.4 30.3 -0.1 21.41 21.39 -0.02

43-000000

Transportation and warehousing

38.8 38.8 0.0 25.64 25.57 -0.07

44-220000

Utilities

42.5 42.5 0.0 44.41 44.38 -0.03

50-000000

Information

36.7 36.7 0.0 43.72 43.83 0.11

55-000000

Financial activities

37.4 37.4 0.0 39.64 39.69 0.05

60-000000

Professional and business services

36.5 36.5 0.0 35.85 35.73 -0.12

65-000000

Education and health services

33.2 33.3 0.1 29.19 29.41 0.22

70-000000

Leisure and hospitality

26.2 26.2 0.0 17.68 17.63 -0.05

80-000000

Other services

32.3 32.4 0.1 27.06 27.51 0.45
Table 7. Effect of March 2021 benchmark revisions to production employees average weekly hours and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings
Estimated Revised Difference Estimated Revised Difference

05-000000

Total private

34.1 34.2 0.1 $25.25 $25.33 $0.08

06-000000

Goods-producing

41 41 0.0 25.88 25.86 -0.02

08-000000

Private service-providing

33 33 0.0 25.12 25.22 0.10

10-000000

Mining and logging

46.7 46.5 -0.2 30.70 30.48 -0.22

20-000000

Construction

39.6 39.5 -0.1 29.69 29.67 -0.02

30-000000

Manufacturing

41.6 41.6 0.0 23.33 23.36 0.03

31-000000

Durable goods

41.9 41.9 0.0 24.34 24.36 0.02

32-000000

Nondurable goods

41.1 41.1 0.0 21.72 21.77 0.05

40-000000

Trade, transportation, and utilities

34.2 34.2 0.0 21.74 21.72 -0.02

41-420000

Wholesale trade

38.6 38.6 0.0 27.10 27.10 0.00

42-000000

Retail trade

30.8 30.7 -0.1 17.98 17.98 0.00

43-000000

Transportation and warehousing

38.4 38.4 0.0 22.92 22.83 -0.09

44-220000

Utilities

42.6 42.6 0.0 39.92 39.90 -0.02

50-000000

Information

36 35.9 -0.1 36.61 36.70 0.09

55-000000

Financial activities

37 37 0.0 30.06 30.06 0.00

60-000000

Professional and business services

36 36 0.0 29.97 29.88 -0.09

65-000000

Education and health services

32.5 32.5 0.0 26.21 26.41 0.20

70-000000

Leisure and hospitality

24.8 24.8 0.0 15.34 15.30 -0.04

80-000000

Other services

31.3 31.5 0.2 23.13 23.59 0.46

Net birth-death revisions

The difference between CES estimates and the population employment results from various sources, and disaggregating it into its components is complex. Both are subject to nonresponse and reporting error. Additionally, the CES estimates are subject to sampling error and business birth and death modeling error.

The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total nonfarm employment level because each month new establishments generate employment that cannot be captured through the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from UI quarterly tax records. These records cover virtually all U.S. employers and include business births, but they only become available for updating the CES sampling frame 7 to 9 months after the reference month. After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and soliciting cooperation from the establishments, and verifying the initial data provided. In practice, BLS cannot sample and begin to collect data from new establishments until they are at least a year old.

BLS has researched both sample-based and model-based approaches to measuring employment from business births and deaths that have not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. The research demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the very short CES production timeframes, so BLS uses a model-based approach to account for this employment. This model incorporates two components. The first component is an indirect imputation for business deaths. The second component is an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model designed to estimate the net birth-death employment not accounted for by the imputation from the first component. More information on the CES birth-death model is available in the Birth-Death Model section of the CES Technical Notes.

An analysis of error in the birth-death model and the effect of those errors on CES estimation follows.

Net birth-death changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Current estimates of not seasonally adjusted employment include both a sample-based component and a model-based component. The model-based portion, called the net birth-death forecast, is intended to account for businesses that have closed or opened since the sample was initially drawn. While this model performs well in times of relative stability, it has not traditionally included a mechanism to account for rapid changes in the most recent months of employment estimates.

In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic created a severe economic shock to the global economy, resulting in massive job losses across the United States. This widespread disruption to labor markets and the potential impact to the birth-death model prompted BLS to revisit research conducted after the Great Recession (2007-09) and incorporate new ideas to account for changes in the number of business openings and closings. Two areas of research were implemented to improve the accuracy of the birth-death model in the CES estimates. These adjustments better reflect the net effect of the contribution of business births and deaths to the estimates. These two methodological changes, one to adjust each of the two steps in the birth-death model, are the following:

  • A portion of both reported zero employment and returns from zero in the current month from the sample were used in estimation to better account for the fact that business births and deaths do not offset.

  • Current sample growth rates were included in the net birth-death forecasting model to better account for the changing relationships between business openings and closings.

First, a proportion of reports that fell to zero employment and reports that returned from zero employment in each month were used to adjust the weighted contribution of each report used in the calculation of the over-the-month change of the sample-based estimates. Typically, reports with zero employment in either the previous or current month are not included in estimation. To account for an excess amount of reports going to zero employment and reports returning from zero employment, BLS calculated the likelihood that either a reported zero or a return from zero exceeded what would be expected for the month. These "excess declines to zero" and "excess returns from zero" (collectively called excess reported zeroes) partially account for drops in employment (when more business deaths than are usually observed in historical population data occur) and for increases in employment (when there are more business births than normal). More specifically, "excess declines to zero" were used in March 2020 and subsequent months' first preliminary, second preliminary, and final estimates through September 2021. "Excess returns from zero" were used in first, second, and final estimates from May 2020 to September 2021.

Second, BLS adjusted the portion of business births and deaths that cannot be accounted for using sample data by including more recent information. Net birth-death forecasts are normally modeled using an ARIMA based on over-the-month changes of 5 years of historical birth-death residual values that end 9 months before the forecast of the current month. Instead of using only historical data—data that would not accurately account for how the labor market has changed due to COVID-19—a regression variable that includes data up to the current month was included in the model. The regression variable is the CES sample-based ratio of over-the-month change, known as the sample link, for each of the major industry sectors. Each major industry sector sample link was used as a regressor for the basic-level industry forecasts only within that sector from April 2020 to September 2021.

BLS did research on a monthly basis to determine when to return to normal estimation. BLS monitored responses to the CES survey for a reduction in rates of newly reported zeroes and returns from zero in the current month and the resumption of previous patterns in the net birth-death forecasts. Effective with the release of October 2021 preliminary estimates, BLS determined that adjustments to its birth-death methodology were no longer necessary.

The use of sample links as regression variables in the model initially accounted for a difference of 33,000 in the net birth-death forecasts from January 2021 to September 2021, with a range from −24,000 to 39,000. Exhibit 1 below outlines monthly differences due to the inclusion of the sample link regressor.

Exhibit 1. Preliminary and revised net birth-death forecasts for total private with and without regressor adjustments, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)
Month Preliminary Forecast Revised Forecast
With Adjustment Without Adjustment Difference With Adjustment Without Adjustment Difference

April 2020

-553 246 -799 -470 282 -752

May

345 207 138 319 203 116

June

295 73 222 235 68 167

July

241 193 48 254 211 43

August

154 104 50 142 95 47

September

-62 -99 37 -64 -96 32

October

344 293 51 363 313 50

November

6 2 4 -1 0 -1

December

19 -56 75 18 -48 66

Total 2020

789 963 -174 796 1,028 -232

January 2021

-143 -143 0 (1) (1) (1)

February

131 135 -4 (1) (1) (1)

March

38 -1 39 (1) (1) (1)

April

298 277 21 309 270(2) 39(2)

May

218 242 -24 239 260(2) -21(2)

June

76 95 -19 106 118(2) -12(2)

July

224 225 -1 264 244(2) 20(2)

August

142 135 7 146 134(2) 12(2)

September

-89 -103 14 -87 -96(2) 9(2)

Total 2021

895 862 33 977 930(2) 47(2)

Footnotes:
(1) Net birth-death forecasts are only revised in the post-benchmark period for months from April to December.
(2) Corrected from original publication.

The effect of these adjustments to CES estimates of employment reflect the pronounced impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Exhibit 2 illustrates the difference at the total private level between the published CES estimates that use these two adjustments and a simulated CES series calculated without using either adjustment. The total private benchmark revision amount applied to March 2021 was −256,000. Without these adjustments to the birth-death model, the total private employment would have been 898,000 greater, and the benchmark revision amount would have been −1,154,000.

Exhibit 2. Effects of adjusted net birth-death forecasts and use of reported zeroes on total private employment before benchmarking, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)
Month Total Private Employment with Adjustments Total Private Employment without Adjustments Difference

April 2020

108,032 111,396 -3,364

May

111,800 114,378 -2,578

June

117,267 118,889 -1,622

July

118,797 120,130 -1,333

August

119,704 120,927 -1,223

September

120,101 121,260 -1,159

October

121,581 122,659 -1,078

November

122,128 123,257 -1,129

December

121,802 122,877 -1,075

January 2021

119,527 120,591 -1,064

February

120,369 121,352 -983

March

121,421 122,319 -898

Forecasted vs. actual net birth-death

Only error from the model-based component of CES estimation is directly measurable. Error from this component is measured by comparing the actual net of births and deaths with the model-based forecast that was used in the CES sample-based estimates during the previous benchmark year. Most recently, the data from April 2020 to March 2021 can be measured. As table 8 shows, the actual net birth-death from April 2020 to March 2021 was approximately 212,000 below the forecast used in the CES monthly estimates for the same period.

Table 8. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth-death, total private employment, April 2020 to March 2021 (in thousands)
Benchmark 2021 2020 2021 Total
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Actual Net Birth-Death

-2,162 782 543 523 253 -27 585 10 -107 -85 230 65 610

Forecast Net Birth-Death

-470 319 235 254 142 -64 363 -1 18 -143 131 38 822

Difference

-1,692 463 308 269 111 37 222 11 -125 58 99 27 -212

Cumulative Difference

-1,692 -1,229 -921 -652 -541 -504 -282 -271 -396 -338 -239 -212

Net birth-death adjustments to the post-benchmark period

From April 2021 to December 2021, also called the post-benchmark period, CES estimates were recalculated for each month based primarily on new benchmark levels and new net birth-death forecasts. Net birth-death forecasts were revised to incorporate information from the most recent year of universe employment counts. Table 9 shows the net birth-death values for the supersectors over the post-benchmark period. From April 2021 to December 2021, the net birth-death model cumulatively added 1,331,000 jobs, compared with 1,195,000 in the previously published April 2021 to December 2021 employment estimates.

Table 9. Net birth-death forecasts by industry supersector, April to December 2021 (in thousands)
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Cumulative
Total

10-000000

Mining and logging

0 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 5

20-000000

Construction

30 31 23 16 19 4 27 -9 -17 124

30-000000

Manufacturing

1 10 3 2 7 1 9 4 1 38

40-000000

Trade, transportation, and utilities

21 33 19 23 19 10 51 17 8 201

41-420000(1)

Wholesale trade

4 7 1 2 3 -4 14 2 0 29

42-000000(1)

Retail trade

9 15 8 13 6 5 19 0 -1 74

43-000000(1)

Transportation and warehousing

8 11 10 8 10 9 18 15 9 98

44-220000(1)

Utilities

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

50-000000

Information

5 5 -1 7 3 0 11 3 1 34

55-000000

Financial activities

13 10 0 10 4 -8 32 1 7 69

60-000000

Professional and business services

97 26 -15 75 48 -20 135 9 -19 336

65-000000

Education and health services

40 20 -29 41 18 -13 76 14 -14 153

70-000000

Leisure and hospitality

88 93 95 84 20 -56 17 -22 -3 316

80-000000

Other services

14 9 10 5 8 -5 20 0 -6 55

Total private net birth-death forecast

  309 239 106 264 146 -87 379 17 -42 1,331

Footnotes
(1) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

Changes to the CES published series

With the release of the January 2022 first preliminary estimates on February 4, 2022, BLS incorporated series changes related to annual sample adequacy and disclosure review.

Series changes due to annual sample review

All CES series are evaluated annually for sample size, coverage, and response rates. The following changes result from a re-evaluation of the sample and universe coverage for CES industries, which are based on NAICS 2017. Some industries no longer have sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately and were discontinued or combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. This information is also available on the publication changes for the 2021 benchmark release page.

A list of currently published CES series is available at the CES published series page.

Table 10. Series with CES Industry Code or Title Changes
NAICS Code Previous New
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title CES Industry Code CES Industry Title

3313,4

31-331300 Alumina and aluminum production 31-331400 Other nonferrous metal production, including alumina and aluminum

3313,4

31-331400 Other nonferrous metal production

In order to more easily identify affected series and because AE series are published at a more detailed industry level than non-AE series, series changes are shown separately for AE and non-AE data types. The first two tables in this section reference collapsed and discontinued series for AE only. The third table references discontinued series for all non-AE data types. Discontinued series tables(table 11 and table 13) display series for which the data types noted are no longer published. The collapsed series table(table 12) displays series for which the data types noted are published at a more aggregate level because the more detailed industry no longer has sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately. Affected industries have been combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. Historical data for these series were reconstructed to provide consistent time series. Industries that are no longer published for AE will also no longer be published for other directly estimated data types or derivative series.

Table 11. Discontinued all employees series
NAICS Code CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Next Highest Published Industry

322211

32-322211 Corrugated and solid fiber boxes Paperboard containers (32-322210)

322212,9

32-322219 Folding boxes and miscellaneous paperboard containers Paperboard containers (32-322210)
Table 12. Collapsed all employees series
Previous New

NAICS Code

CES Industry Code CES Industry Title NAICS Code CES Industry Code CES Industry Title

3313

31-331300 Alumina and aluminum production 3313,4 31-331400 Other nonferrous metal production, including alumina and aluminum

3314

31-331400 Other nonferrous metal production

33636

31-336360 Motor vehicle seating and interior trim 33634,6,9 31-336390 All other motor vehicle parts

33634,9

31-336390 All other motor vehicle parts

42492

41-424920 Books and periodicals 42492,4,5,9 41-424990 All other nondurable goods wholesalers

42494,5,9

41-424990 All other nondurable goods wholesalers
Table 13. Discontinued series other than all employees
NAICS Code CES Industry CodeCES Industry Title Discontinued From PublicationNext Highest Published Industry

212312

10-212312Crushed and broken limestone mining PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Stone mining and quarrying (10-212310)

212311,3,9

10-212319 Other stone mining and quarrying PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Stone mining and quarrying (10-212310)

321911

31-321911 Wood windows and doors AE AHE, AE AWH, AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, WE Millwork (31-321910)

321912,8

31-321918 Cut stock, resawing lumber, planing, and other millwork, including flooring AE AHE, AE AWH, AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, WE Millwork (31-321910)

3324

31-332400 Boilers, tanks, and shipping containers PE AWOH Fabricated metal products (31-332000)

33291

31-332910 Metal valves AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, PE AWOH Other fabricated metal products (31-332900)

33299

31-332990 All other fabricated metal products AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, PE AWOH Other fabricated metal products (31-332900)

3334

31-333400 HVAC and commercial refrigeration equipment PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Machinery (31-333000)

3339

31-333900 Other general purpose machinery PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Machinery (31-333000)

33392

31-333920 Material handling equipment AE AWOH Other general purpose machinery (31-333900)

337121

31-337121 Upholstered household furniture PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Other household and institutional furniture (31-337120)

339113

31-339113 Surgical appliances and supplies AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Medical equipment and supplies (31-339100)

339116

31-339116 Dental laboratories AE AHE, AE AWH, WE Medical equipment and supplies (31-339100)

3113

32-311300 Sugar and confectionery products AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Food manufacturing (32-311000)

3221

32-322100 Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills AE AHE, AE AWH, WE Paper and paper products (32-322000)

3222

32-322200 Converted paper products AE AHE, AE AWH, WE Paper and paper products (32-322000)

322211

32-322211 Corrugated and solid fiber boxes AE AHE, AE AWH, AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, PE AWOH, WE Paperboard containers (32-322210)

324

32-324000 Petroleum and coal products AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, PE AWOH Nondurable goods (32-000000)

32411

32-324110 Petroleum refineries WE Petroleum and coal products (32-324000)

32412,9

32-324190 Asphalt paving and roofing materials and other petroleum and coal products WE Petroleum and coal products (32-324000)

3252

32-325200 Resin, rubber, and artificial fibers AE AHE, AE AWH Chemicals (32-325000)

32611

32-326110 Plastics packaging materials, film, and sheet AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Plastics products (32-326100)

312,6

32-329000 Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, PE AWOH Nondurable goods (32-000000)

443141

42-443141 Household appliance stores PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Electronics and appliance stores (42-443000)

443142

42-443142 Electronics stores PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Electronics and appliance stores (42-443000)

52221

55-522210 Credit card issuing WE Nondepository credit intermediation (55-522200)

52222

55-522220 Sales financing WE Nondepository credit intermediation (55-522200)

5322

55-532200 Consumer goods rental AE AHE, AE AWH Rental and leasing services (55-53200)

5323

55-532300 General rental centers AE AHE, AE AWH Rental and leasing services (55-53200)

54186

60-541860 Direct mail advertising AE AHE, AE AWH, WE Advertising and related services (60-541800)

54192

60-541920 Photographic services PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Other professional and technical services (60-541900)

54193,9

60-541990 Miscellaneous professional and technical services PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Other professional and technical services (60-541900)

56174

60-561740 Carpet and upholstery cleaning services PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Services to buildings and dwellings (60-561700)

56179

60-561790 Other services to buildings and dwellings PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Services to buildings and dwellings (60-561700)

5622

60-562200 Waste treatment and disposal PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Waste management and remediation services (60-562000)

5629

60-562900Remediation and other waste services PE, PE AHE, PE AWH Waste management and remediation services (60-562000)

Availability of revised data

LABSTAT, the BLS public database, contains all historical employment, hours, and earnings data revised as a result of this benchmark, including both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data. The data can be accessed at the CES-National database page.

Previously published data are available on both a not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted basis for all CES industries down to the 3-digit level from the CES Vintage Data page. CES vintage data are typically updated in early March following the annual benchmark revision.

Benchmarks for detailed industries can be found at the CES detailed industry tables page.

Table of figures

Tables

Exhibits

Last Modified Date: May 6, 2022