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Authored by Caitlin Patrick and Marcus Polite.
Caitlin Patrick and Marcus Polite are economists in the Division of Current Employment Statistics – National, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Telephone: (202) 691‑6555; email: Contact CES
With the release of January 2022 data on February 4, 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its annual revision to national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments.
The March 2021 benchmarked seasonally adjusted employment level for total nonfarm employment is 144,431,000. The not seasonally adjusted benchmarked employment level is 143,308,000.
Compared with the sample-based, seasonally adjusted published estimate for March 2021, total nonfarm employment had a revision of 374,000 or 0.3 percent. The not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment estimate was revised by −7,000 or less than 0.05 percent.
Table 1 presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January 2021 through December 2021. The revised data for April 2021 forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark employment level, as well as updated net birth-death model forecasts and new seasonal adjustment factors. Revisions to November and December also reflect incorporation of additional sample receipts. For more information about the methodology of benchmarking in the CES program, see the CES Technical Notes available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section7b.
2021 | Levels | Over-the-month changes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
As Revised | As Previously Published | Difference | As Revised | As Previously Published | Difference | |
January |
143,017 | 142,736 | 281 | 520 | 233 | 287 |
February |
143,727 | 143,272 | 455 | 710 | 536 | 174 |
March |
144,431 | 144,057 | 374 | 704 | 785 | -81 |
April |
144,694 | 144,326 | 368 | 263 | 269 | -6 |
May |
145,141 | 144,940 | 201 | 447 | 614 | -167 |
June |
145,698 | 145,902 | -204 | 557 | 962 | -405 |
July |
146,387 | 146,993 | -606 | 689 | 1,091 | -402 |
August |
146,904 | 147,476 | -572 | 517 | 483 | 34 |
September |
147,328 | 147,855 | -527 | 424 | 379 | 45 |
October |
148,005 | 148,503 | -498 | 677 | 648 | 29 |
November |
148,652 | 148,752 | -100 | 647 | 249 | 398 |
December (p) |
149,162 | 148,951 | 211 | 510 | 199 | 311 |
Footnotes |
Establishment survey benchmarking is done each year to align employment estimates from the survey with employment counts derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI). All employers covered by UI laws are required to report employment and wage information to the appropriate state UI agency four times per year. About 97 percent of total nonfarm employment within the scope of the establishment survey is covered by UI. The UI data are obtained and edited by each state’s Labor Market Information agency. They are tabulated and published through the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. Both the QCEW and CES categorize their data using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
An employment count for the remaining 3 percent is constructed from other sources, primarily records from the Railroad Retirement Board and Census Bureau data from County Business Patterns and the Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll. This 3 percent is referred to as noncovered employment. The combination of QCEW and noncovered employment data make up the benchmark level. The full benchmark employment level developed for March replaces the March sample-based estimate for each basic cell.
The total annual revision is the difference between the benchmark level for a given March and the published March sample-based employment estimate. The overall accuracy of the establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of the benchmark revision, which is often regarded as a proxy for total survey error. Typically, the total revision is equal to the benchmark revision, but in years with historical reconstructions, affected CES series are re-estimated prior to benchmarking. The benchmark revision, in these cases, is the difference between the benchmark level and the newly reconstructed sample-based estimate. The benchmark revision is the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own error sources.
In order to create a continuous time series between the new March benchmark level and historical sample-based data from the prior March benchmark level, employment estimates for the months between the most recent March benchmark and the previous year's benchmark are adjusted using a linear "wedge-back" procedure. This procedure assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. For the 9 months following the March benchmark (also called the post-benchmark period), BLS applies previously derived over-the-month sample changes to the revised March level to get the revised estimates. New net birth-death model forecasts are also calculated and applied during post-benchmark estimation. More information on benchmarks in the CES program is available in the Benchmarks section of the CES Technical Notes and in the October 2017 Monthly Labor Review, "Benchmarking the Current Employment Statistics National Estimates."
BLS seasonally adjusts 5 years of CES data with each annual benchmark for all industries and directly estimated data types. However, reconstructed series are seasonally adjusted over their revised time spans if the revised timespan is greater than 5 years. Details about seasonal adjustment during the 2021 benchmark are described below.
Selecting outliers, or any data points that fall outside of the normal monthly values, is a standard part of seasonally adjusting any time series. Until the 2021 benchmark, BLS included only point outliers in its annual seasonal adjustment processing. With the 2021 benchmark, BLS decided to use additional types of outliers to better account for seasonal patterns without removing the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. For more information about the changes to CES seasonal adjustment outlier selection, see the Recent Outliers section of the CES Technical Notes.
For technical information on how seasonal adjustment is performed in the CES program, see the Seasonal Adjustment section of the CES Technical Notes.
For information on seasonal adjustment model specifications and special model adjustments, see the CES Seasonal Adjustment Files and Documentation page.
Table 2 presents revised employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for March 2021 by major industry sector. The revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is 374,000.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | As Revised | As Previously Published | Differences | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amount | Percent | ||||
00-000000 | Total nonfarm | 144,431 | 144,057 | 374 | 0.3 |
05-000000 | Total private | 122,572 | 122,515 | 57 | (1) |
06-000000 | Goods-producing | 20,227 | 20,360 | -133 | -0.7 |
07-000000 | Service-providing | 124,204 | 123,697 | 507 | 0.4 |
08-000000 | Private service-providing | 102,345 | 102,155 | 190 | 0.2 |
10-000000 | Mining and logging | 551 | 613 | -62 | -11.3 |
20-000000 | Construction | 7,408 | 7,448 | -40 | -0.5 |
30-000000 | Manufacturing | 12,268 | 12,299 | -31 | -0.3 |
31-000000 | Durable goods | 7,626 | 7,636 | -10 | -0.1 |
32-000000 | Nondurable goods | 4,642 | 4,663 | -21 | -0.5 |
40-000000 | Trade, transportation, and utilities | 27,503 | 27,186 | 317 | 1.2 |
41-420000(2) | Wholesale trade | 5,635.5 | 5,658.0 | -22.5 | -0.4 |
42-000000(2) | Retail trade | 15,328.6 | 15,234.6 | 94.0 | 0.6 |
43-000000(2) | Transportation and warehousing | 5,995.8 | 5,753.1 | 242.7 | 4 |
44-220000(2) | Utilities | 542.7 | 539.8 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
50-000000 | Information | 2,768 | 2,683 | 85 | 3.1 |
55-000000 | Financial activities | 8,733 | 8,787 | -54 | -0.6 |
60-000000 | Professional and business services | 21,021 | 20,807 | 214 | 1 |
65-000000 | Education and health services | 23,541 | 23,396 | 145 | 0.6 |
70-000000 | Leisure and hospitality | 13,423 | 13,757 | -334 | -2.5 |
80-000000 | Other services | 5,356 | 5,539 | -183 | -3.4 |
90-000000 | Government | 21,859 | 21,542 | 317 | 1.5 |
Footnotes
(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent. |
Benchmark employment levels for March are compared to CES estimates that have not been seasonally adjusted to calculate the new March employment level. Twenty-one months of not seasonally adjusted CES estimates for all data types are revised based on this new March level, prior to seasonal adjustment. Revisions to not seasonally adjusted CES estimates are described below.
Table 3 presents the employment benchmarks for March 2021, not seasonally adjusted, by major industry sector. The total revision to not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is −7,000.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Benchmark | Estimate | Differences | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amount | Percent | ||||
00-000000 | Total nonfarm | 143,308 | 143,315 | -7 | (1) |
05-000000 | Total private | 121,165 | 121,421 | -256 | -0.2 |
06-000000 | Goods-producing | 19,934 | 20,080 | -146 | -0.7 |
07-000000 | Service-providing | 123,374 | 123,235 | 139 | 0.1 |
08-000000 | Private service-providing | 101,231 | 101,341 | -110 | -0.1 |
10-000000 | Mining and logging | 547 | 610 | -63 | -11.5 |
20-000000 | Construction | 7,162 | 7,203 | -41 | -0.6 |
30-000000 | Manufacturing | 12,225 | 12,267 | -42 | -0.3 |
31-000000 | Durable goods | 7,609 | 7,630 | -21 | -0.3 |
32-000000 | Nondurable goods | 4,616 | 4,637 | -21 | -0.5 |
40-000000 | Trade, transportation, and utilities | 27,204 | 26,897 | 307 | 1.1 |
41-420000 | Wholesale trade | 5,609.3 | 5,632.9 | -23.6 | -0.4 |
42-000000 | Retail trade | 15,099.1 | 15,041.2 | 57.9 | 0.4 |
43-000000 | Transportation and warehousing | 5,953.7 | 5,683.6 | 270.1 | 4.5 |
44-220000 | Utilities | 542.1 | 539.3 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
50-000000 | Information | 2,759 | 2,675 | 84 | 3.0 |
55-000000 | Financial activities | 8,686 | 8,750 | -64 | -0.7 |
60-000000 | Professional and business services | 20,767 | 20,549 | 218 | 1.0 |
65-000000 | Education and health services | 23,643 | 23,518 | 125 | 0.5 |
70-000000 | Leisure and hospitality | 12,876 | 13,448 | -572 | -4.4 |
80-000000 | Other services | 5,296 | 5,504 | -208 | -3.9 |
90-000000 | Government | 22,143 | 21,894 | 249 | 1.1 |
Footnotes
(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent. |
Benchmarks for more detailed industries are available on the CES detailed industry tables page.
Table 4 below shows the recent history of not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm percent and level benchmark revisions. Over the prior 10 years, the annual benchmark revision at the total nonfarm level has averaged 0.1 percent (in absolute terms), with a range of −0.3 percent to 0.3 percent.
The differences listed in table 4 and beyond reflect the error due to normal benchmarking procedures after the incorporation of reconstructions. Those years are footnoted.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Type | 2011 (1) | 2012 | 2013 (2) | 2014 | 2015 (3) | 2016 | 2017 (4) | 2018 (5) | 2019 (6) | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00-000000 |
Total nonfarm | Percent | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.1 | (7) | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | (7) | -0.3 | -0.1 | (7) |
Level | 162 | 424 | -119 | 67 | -172 | -81 | 135 | -16 | -489 | -121 | -7 | ||
05-000000 |
Total private | Percent | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
Level | 134 | 481 | -126 | 105 | -232 | -151 | 133 | -104 | -505 | -184 | -256 | ||
10-000000 |
Mining and logging | Percent | -0.4 | 1.6 | -1.2 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -3.2 | -4.6 | -1.1 | -2.1 | -4 | -11.5 |
Level | -3 | 13 | -10 | -16 | -19 | -22 | -30 | -8 | -15 | -27 | -63 | ||
20-000000 |
Construction | Percent | -0.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -0.1 | (7) | -0.6 |
Level | -26 | 93 | 14 | 90 | 39 | 47 | 52 | 44 | -4 | 2 | -41 | ||
30-000000 |
Manufacturing | Percent | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.1 | (7) | -0.6 | -0.3 |
Level | 9 | -25 | 23 | 43 | -12 | 58 | 15 | -18 | -4 | -75 | -42 | ||
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities | Percent | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.5 | -0.1 | (7) | -0.4 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Level | 95 | 145 | -131 | -31 | -5 | -110 | 75 | -77 | -117 | 24 | 307 | ||
41-420000(8) |
Wholesale trade | Percent | -0.2 | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
Level | -13.1 | 45.3 | -20.2 | -45.4 | -41.3 | -66.6 | -21.2 | -54.4 | -38.6 | -48 | -23.6 | ||
42-000000(8) |
Retail trade | Percent | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.8 | (7) | -0.2 | -0.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.4 |
Level | 83.8 | 78.9 | -110.3 | 5.5 | -23.5 | -118.2 | 15.4 | -96.4 | -150.8 | -78.3 | 57.9 | ||
43-000000(8) |
Transportation and warehousing | Percent | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 4.5 |
Level | 22.4 | 29.4 | 3.6 | 9.7 | 65.3 | 83.5 | 79.8 | 72.7 | 75.8 | 148.9 | 270.1 | ||
44-220000(8) |
Utilities | Percent | 0.5 | -1.5 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.8 | -1.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
Level | 2.8 | -8.5 | -4.6 | -0.6 | -4.7 | -8.7 | 1 | 1.8 | -4.1 | 1.1 | 2.8 | ||
50-000000 |
Information | Percent | -0.4 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 2.4 | -1.6 | -0.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 3 |
Level | -12 | 47 | -5 | 66 | -44 | -2 | 70 | 59 | 35 | 14 | 84 | ||
55-000000 |
Financial activities | Percent | 0.9 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | (7) | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.7 |
Level | 69 | 45 | -10 | 19 | -9 | -4 | 7 | -12 | 68 | 25 | -64 | ||
60-000000 |
Professional and business services | Percent | 0.7 | (7) | (7) | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.6 | 1 |
Level | 125 | 2 | 4 | -147 | -110 | -125 | -270 | -72 | -159 | -123 | 218 | ||
65-000000 |
Education and health services | Percent | -0.5 | (7) | -0.3 | -0.1 | (7) | -0.4 | 0.3 | (7) | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 |
Level | -108 | -2 | -61 | -16 | -7 | -83 | 70 | 5 | -95 | -47 | 125 | ||
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality | Percent | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | (7) | -1.1 | 0.2 | -4.4 |
Level | 93 | 104 | 72 | 38 | -45 | 102 | 126 | -4 | -170 | 31 | -572 | ||
80-000000 |
Other services | Percent | -2 | 1.1 | -0.4 | 1.1 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -3.9 |
Level | -108 | 59 | -22 | 59 | -20 | -12 | 18 | -21 | -44 | -8 | -208 | ||
90-000000 |
Government | Percent | 0.1 | -0.3 | (7) | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | (7) | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
Level | 28 | -57 | 7 | -38 | 60 | 70 | 2 | 88 | 16 | 63 | 249 | ||
Footnotes: |
Benchmarking also affects the series for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) and women employees (WE). There are no benchmark employment levels for these series; they are revised by preserving ratios of employment for the particular data type to the all employee (AE) level prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised all employee level. These figures are calculated at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary estimates. Average weekly hours (AWH), average hourly earnings (AHE), and, in manufacturing industries, average weekly overtime hours (AWOH) are not benchmarked; they are estimated solely from reports supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell level. New employment benchmarks can additionally affect indirectly estimated data types. For more information on indirectly estimated data types, see the Available Data section in the CES Technical Notes.
Table 5 lists directly estimated data types and their common abbreviations. Directly estimated data types except for AE are collectively called non-AE data types.
Data Type | Abbreviation |
---|---|
All employees | AE |
Production and nonsupervisory employees | PE |
Women employees | WE |
Average weekly hours of all employees | AE AWH |
Average hourly earnings of all employees | AE AHE |
Average weekly overtime hours of all employees | AE AWOH |
Average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory employees | PE AWH |
Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees | PE AHE |
Average weekly overtime hours of production and nonsupervisory employees | PE AWOH |
The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings series are derived as a weighted average. AE and PE estimates for basic cells act as weights for their respective hours and earnings estimates for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of AE estimates to new benchmarks may alter the implicit weights used for both AE and PE hours and earnings, which, in turn, may change the estimates for both AE and PE hours and earnings at higher levels of aggregation.
Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect on hours and earnings estimates for major industry groupings. To influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader industry group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and must affect industries that have hours or earnings averages that are substantially different from those of other industries in their broader group.
Table 6 and table 7 provide information on the not seasonally adjusted levels of major industry sector hours and earnings series resulting from the March 2021 benchmark. At the total private level, there was no change in average weekly hours estimates for AE and average weekly hours for PE increased by 0.1 hours from the previously published level. Total private average hourly earnings increased by 8 cents for AE and PE from the previously published level.
Benchmark effects on hours and earnings for more detailed industries are available on the CES detailed industry tables page.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Average Weekly Hours | Average Hourly Earnings | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimated | Revised | Difference | Estimated | Revised | Difference | ||
05-000000 |
Total private |
34.7 | 34.7 | 0.0 | $29.95 | $30.03 | $0.08 |
06-000000 |
Goods-producing |
40.1 | 40 | -0.1 | 30.39 | 30.35 | -0.04 |
08-000000 |
Private service-providing |
33.6 | 33.7 | 0.1 | 29.85 | 29.95 | 0.10 |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
45.1 | 45 | -0.1 | 34.72 | 34.45 | -0.27 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
39 | 39 | 0.0 | 32.20 | 32.16 | -0.04 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
40.4 | 40.4 | 0.0 | 29.12 | 29.12 | 0.00 |
31-000000 |
Durable goods |
40.7 | 40.7 | 0.0 | 30.60 | 30.57 | -0.03 |
32-000000 |
Nondurable goods |
39.9 | 40 | 0.1 | 26.62 | 26.68 | 0.06 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
34.1 | 34.2 | 0.1 | 25.74 | 25.71 | -0.03 |
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
38.8 | 38.8 | 0.0 | 32.94 | 32.97 | 0.03 |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
30.4 | 30.3 | -0.1 | 21.41 | 21.39 | -0.02 |
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
38.8 | 38.8 | 0.0 | 25.64 | 25.57 | -0.07 |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
42.5 | 42.5 | 0.0 | 44.41 | 44.38 | -0.03 |
50-000000 |
Information |
36.7 | 36.7 | 0.0 | 43.72 | 43.83 | 0.11 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
37.4 | 37.4 | 0.0 | 39.64 | 39.69 | 0.05 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
36.5 | 36.5 | 0.0 | 35.85 | 35.73 | -0.12 |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
33.2 | 33.3 | 0.1 | 29.19 | 29.41 | 0.22 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
26.2 | 26.2 | 0.0 | 17.68 | 17.63 | -0.05 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
32.3 | 32.4 | 0.1 | 27.06 | 27.51 | 0.45 |
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Average Weekly Hours | Average Hourly Earnings | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimated | Revised | Difference | Estimated | Revised | Difference | ||
05-000000 |
Total private |
34.1 | 34.2 | 0.1 | $25.25 | $25.33 | $0.08 |
06-000000 |
Goods-producing |
41 | 41 | 0.0 | 25.88 | 25.86 | -0.02 |
08-000000 |
Private service-providing |
33 | 33 | 0.0 | 25.12 | 25.22 | 0.10 |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
46.7 | 46.5 | -0.2 | 30.70 | 30.48 | -0.22 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
39.6 | 39.5 | -0.1 | 29.69 | 29.67 | -0.02 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
41.6 | 41.6 | 0.0 | 23.33 | 23.36 | 0.03 |
31-000000 |
Durable goods |
41.9 | 41.9 | 0.0 | 24.34 | 24.36 | 0.02 |
32-000000 |
Nondurable goods |
41.1 | 41.1 | 0.0 | 21.72 | 21.77 | 0.05 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
34.2 | 34.2 | 0.0 | 21.74 | 21.72 | -0.02 |
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
38.6 | 38.6 | 0.0 | 27.10 | 27.10 | 0.00 |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
30.8 | 30.7 | -0.1 | 17.98 | 17.98 | 0.00 |
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
38.4 | 38.4 | 0.0 | 22.92 | 22.83 | -0.09 |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
42.6 | 42.6 | 0.0 | 39.92 | 39.90 | -0.02 |
50-000000 |
Information |
36 | 35.9 | -0.1 | 36.61 | 36.70 | 0.09 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
37 | 37 | 0.0 | 30.06 | 30.06 | 0.00 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
36 | 36 | 0.0 | 29.97 | 29.88 | -0.09 |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
32.5 | 32.5 | 0.0 | 26.21 | 26.41 | 0.20 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
24.8 | 24.8 | 0.0 | 15.34 | 15.30 | -0.04 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
31.3 | 31.5 | 0.2 | 23.13 | 23.59 | 0.46 |
The difference between CES estimates and the population employment results from various sources, and disaggregating it into its components is complex. Both are subject to nonresponse and reporting error. Additionally, the CES estimates are subject to sampling error and business birth and death modeling error.
The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total nonfarm employment level because each month new establishments generate employment that cannot be captured through the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from UI quarterly tax records. These records cover virtually all U.S. employers and include business births, but they only become available for updating the CES sampling frame 7 to 9 months after the reference month. After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and soliciting cooperation from the establishments, and verifying the initial data provided. In practice, BLS cannot sample and begin to collect data from new establishments until they are at least a year old.
BLS has researched both sample-based and model-based approaches to measuring employment from business births and deaths that have not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. The research demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the very short CES production timeframes, so BLS uses a model-based approach to account for this employment. This model incorporates two components. The first component is an indirect imputation for business deaths. The second component is an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model designed to estimate the net birth-death employment not accounted for by the imputation from the first component. More information on the CES birth-death model is available in the Birth-Death Model section of the CES Technical Notes.
An analysis of error in the birth-death model and the effect of those errors on CES estimation follows.
Current estimates of not seasonally adjusted employment include both a sample-based component and a model-based component. The model-based portion, called the net birth-death forecast, is intended to account for businesses that have closed or opened since the sample was initially drawn. While this model performs well in times of relative stability, it has not traditionally included a mechanism to account for rapid changes in the most recent months of employment estimates.
In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic created a severe economic shock to the global economy, resulting in massive job losses across the United States. This widespread disruption to labor markets and the potential impact to the birth-death model prompted BLS to revisit research conducted after the Great Recession (2007-09) and incorporate new ideas to account for changes in the number of business openings and closings. Two areas of research were implemented to improve the accuracy of the birth-death model in the CES estimates. These adjustments better reflect the net effect of the contribution of business births and deaths to the estimates. These two methodological changes, one to adjust each of the two steps in the birth-death model, are the following:
A portion of both reported zero employment and returns from zero in the current month from the sample were used in estimation to better account for the fact that business births and deaths do not offset.
Current sample growth rates were included in the net birth-death forecasting model to better account for the changing relationships between business openings and closings.
First, a proportion of reports that fell to zero employment and reports that returned from zero employment in each month were used to adjust the weighted contribution of each report used in the calculation of the over-the-month change of the sample-based estimates. Typically, reports with zero employment in either the previous or current month are not included in estimation. To account for an excess amount of reports going to zero employment and reports returning from zero employment, BLS calculated the likelihood that either a reported zero or a return from zero exceeded what would be expected for the month. These "excess declines to zero" and "excess returns from zero" (collectively called excess reported zeroes) partially account for drops in employment (when more business deaths than are usually observed in historical population data occur) and for increases in employment (when there are more business births than normal). More specifically, "excess declines to zero" were used in March 2020 and subsequent months' first preliminary, second preliminary, and final estimates through September 2021. "Excess returns from zero" were used in first, second, and final estimates from May 2020 to September 2021.
Second, BLS adjusted the portion of business births and deaths that cannot be accounted for using sample data by including more recent information. Net birth-death forecasts are normally modeled using an ARIMA based on over-the-month changes of 5 years of historical birth-death residual values that end 9 months before the forecast of the current month. Instead of using only historical data—data that would not accurately account for how the labor market has changed due to COVID-19—a regression variable that includes data up to the current month was included in the model. The regression variable is the CES sample-based ratio of over-the-month change, known as the sample link, for each of the major industry sectors. Each major industry sector sample link was used as a regressor for the basic-level industry forecasts only within that sector from April 2020 to September 2021.
BLS did research on a monthly basis to determine when to return to normal estimation. BLS monitored responses to the CES survey for a reduction in rates of newly reported zeroes and returns from zero in the current month and the resumption of previous patterns in the net birth-death forecasts. Effective with the release of October 2021 preliminary estimates, BLS determined that adjustments to its birth-death methodology were no longer necessary.
The use of sample links as regression variables in the model initially accounted for a difference of 33,000 in the net birth-death forecasts from January 2021 to September 2021, with a range from −24,000 to 39,000. Exhibit 1 below outlines monthly differences due to the inclusion of the sample link regressor.
Month | Preliminary Forecast | Revised Forecast | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
With Adjustment | Without Adjustment | Difference | With Adjustment | Without Adjustment | Difference | |
April 2020 |
-553 | 246 | -799 | -470 | 282 | -752 |
May |
345 | 207 | 138 | 319 | 203 | 116 |
June |
295 | 73 | 222 | 235 | 68 | 167 |
July |
241 | 193 | 48 | 254 | 211 | 43 |
August |
154 | 104 | 50 | 142 | 95 | 47 |
September |
-62 | -99 | 37 | -64 | -96 | 32 |
October |
344 | 293 | 51 | 363 | 313 | 50 |
November |
6 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
December |
19 | -56 | 75 | 18 | -48 | 66 |
Total 2020 |
789 | 963 | -174 | 796 | 1,028 | -232 |
January 2021 |
-143 | -143 | 0 | (1) | (1) | (1) |
February |
131 | 135 | -4 | (1) | (1) | (1) |
March |
38 | -1 | 39 | (1) | (1) | (1) |
April |
298 | 277 | 21 | 309 | 270(2) | 39(2) |
May |
218 | 242 | -24 | 239 | 260(2) | -21(2) |
June |
76 | 95 | -19 | 106 | 118(2) | -12(2) |
July |
224 | 225 | -1 | 264 | 244(2) | 20(2) |
August |
142 | 135 | 7 | 146 | 134(2) | 12(2) |
September |
-89 | -103 | 14 | -87 | -96(2) | 9(2) |
Total 2021 |
895 | 862 | 33 | 977 | 930(2) | 47(2) |
Footnotes: |
The effect of these adjustments to CES estimates of employment reflect the pronounced impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Exhibit 2 illustrates the difference at the total private level between the published CES estimates that use these two adjustments and a simulated CES series calculated without using either adjustment. The total private benchmark revision amount applied to March 2021 was −256,000. Without these adjustments to the birth-death model, the total private employment would have been 898,000 greater, and the benchmark revision amount would have been −1,154,000.
Month | Total Private Employment with Adjustments | Total Private Employment without Adjustments | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
April 2020 |
108,032 | 111,396 | -3,364 |
May |
111,800 | 114,378 | -2,578 |
June |
117,267 | 118,889 | -1,622 |
July |
118,797 | 120,130 | -1,333 |
August |
119,704 | 120,927 | -1,223 |
September |
120,101 | 121,260 | -1,159 |
October |
121,581 | 122,659 | -1,078 |
November |
122,128 | 123,257 | -1,129 |
December |
121,802 | 122,877 | -1,075 |
January 2021 |
119,527 | 120,591 | -1,064 |
February |
120,369 | 121,352 | -983 |
March |
121,421 | 122,319 | -898 |
Only error from the model-based component of CES estimation is directly measurable. Error from this component is measured by comparing the actual net of births and deaths with the model-based forecast that was used in the CES sample-based estimates during the previous benchmark year. Most recently, the data from April 2020 to March 2021 can be measured. As table 8 shows, the actual net birth-death from April 2020 to March 2021 was approximately 212,000 below the forecast used in the CES monthly estimates for the same period.
Benchmark 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | Total | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | ||
Actual Net Birth-Death |
-2,162 | 782 | 543 | 523 | 253 | -27 | 585 | 10 | -107 | -85 | 230 | 65 | 610 |
Forecast Net Birth-Death |
-470 | 319 | 235 | 254 | 142 | -64 | 363 | -1 | 18 | -143 | 131 | 38 | 822 |
Difference |
-1,692 | 463 | 308 | 269 | 111 | 37 | 222 | 11 | -125 | 58 | 99 | 27 | -212 |
Cumulative Difference |
-1,692 | -1,229 | -921 | -652 | -541 | -504 | -282 | -271 | -396 | -338 | -239 | -212 |
From April 2021 to December 2021, also called the post-benchmark period, CES estimates were recalculated for each month based primarily on new benchmark levels and new net birth-death forecasts. Net birth-death forecasts were revised to incorporate information from the most recent year of universe employment counts. Table 9 shows the net birth-death values for the supersectors over the post-benchmark period. From April 2021 to December 2021, the net birth-death model cumulatively added 1,331,000 jobs, compared with 1,195,000 in the previously published April 2021 to December 2021 employment estimates.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Cumulative Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
30 | 31 | 23 | 16 | 19 | 4 | 27 | -9 | -17 | 124 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
1 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 38 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
21 | 33 | 19 | 23 | 19 | 10 | 51 | 17 | 8 | 201 |
41-420000(1) |
Wholesale trade |
4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 29 |
42-000000(1) |
Retail trade |
9 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 0 | -1 | 74 |
43-000000(1) |
Transportation and warehousing |
8 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 98 |
44-220000(1) |
Utilities |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
50-000000 |
Information |
5 | 5 | -1 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 34 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
13 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 4 | -8 | 32 | 1 | 7 | 69 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
97 | 26 | -15 | 75 | 48 | -20 | 135 | 9 | -19 | 336 |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
40 | 20 | -29 | 41 | 18 | -13 | 76 | 14 | -14 | 153 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
88 | 93 | 95 | 84 | 20 | -56 | 17 | -22 | -3 | 316 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
14 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 8 | -5 | 20 | 0 | -6 | 55 |
Total private net birth-death forecast |
309 | 239 | 106 | 264 | 146 | -87 | 379 | 17 | -42 | 1,331 | |
Footnotes |
With the release of the January 2022 first preliminary estimates on February 4, 2022, BLS incorporated series changes related to annual sample adequacy and disclosure review.
All CES series are evaluated annually for sample size, coverage, and response rates. The following changes result from a re-evaluation of the sample and universe coverage for CES industries, which are based on NAICS 2017. Some industries no longer have sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately and were discontinued or combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. This information is also available on the publication changes for the 2021 benchmark release page.
A list of currently published CES series is available at the CES published series page.
NAICS Code | Previous | New | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | |
3313,4 |
31-331300 | Alumina and aluminum production | 31-331400 | Other nonferrous metal production, including alumina and aluminum |
3313,4 |
31-331400 | Other nonferrous metal production | ||
In order to more easily identify affected series and because AE series are published at a more detailed industry level than non-AE series, series changes are shown separately for AE and non-AE data types. The first two tables in this section reference collapsed and discontinued series for AE only. The third table references discontinued series for all non-AE data types. Discontinued series tables(table 11 and table 13) display series for which the data types noted are no longer published. The collapsed series table(table 12) displays series for which the data types noted are published at a more aggregate level because the more detailed industry no longer has sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately. Affected industries have been combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. Historical data for these series were reconstructed to provide consistent time series. Industries that are no longer published for AE will also no longer be published for other directly estimated data types or derivative series.
NAICS Code | CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Next Highest Published Industry |
---|---|---|---|
322211 |
32-322211 | Corrugated and solid fiber boxes | Paperboard containers (32-322210) |
322212,9 |
32-322219 | Folding boxes and miscellaneous paperboard containers | Paperboard containers (32-322210) |
Previous | New | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAICS Code |
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | NAICS Code | CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title |
3313 |
31-331300 | Alumina and aluminum production | 3313,4 | 31-331400 | Other nonferrous metal production, including alumina and aluminum |
3314 |
31-331400 | Other nonferrous metal production | |||
33636 |
31-336360 | Motor vehicle seating and interior trim | 33634,6,9 | 31-336390 | All other motor vehicle parts |
33634,9 |
31-336390 | All other motor vehicle parts | |||
42492 |
41-424920 | Books and periodicals | 42492,4,5,9 | 41-424990 | All other nondurable goods wholesalers |
42494,5,9 |
41-424990 | All other nondurable goods wholesalers | |||
NAICS Code | CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Discontinued From Publication | Next Highest Published Industry |
---|---|---|---|---|
212312 |
10-212312 | Crushed and broken limestone mining | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Stone mining and quarrying (10-212310) |
212311,3,9 | 10-212319 | Other stone mining and quarrying | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Stone mining and quarrying (10-212310) |
321911 |
31-321911 | Wood windows and doors | AE AHE, AE AWH, AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, WE | Millwork (31-321910) |
321912,8 |
31-321918 | Cut stock, resawing lumber, planing, and other millwork, including flooring | AE AHE, AE AWH, AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, WE | Millwork (31-321910) |
3324 |
31-332400 | Boilers, tanks, and shipping containers | PE AWOH | Fabricated metal products (31-332000) |
33291 |
31-332910 | Metal valves | AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, PE AWOH | Other fabricated metal products (31-332900) |
33299 |
31-332990 | All other fabricated metal products | AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, PE AWOH | Other fabricated metal products (31-332900) |
3334 |
31-333400 | HVAC and commercial refrigeration equipment | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Machinery (31-333000) |
3339 |
31-333900 | Other general purpose machinery | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Machinery (31-333000) |
33392 |
31-333920 | Material handling equipment | AE AWOH | Other general purpose machinery (31-333900) |
337121 |
31-337121 | Upholstered household furniture | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Other household and institutional furniture (31-337120) |
339113 |
31-339113 | Surgical appliances and supplies | AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Medical equipment and supplies (31-339100) |
339116 |
31-339116 | Dental laboratories | AE AHE, AE AWH, WE | Medical equipment and supplies (31-339100) |
3113 |
32-311300 | Sugar and confectionery products | AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Food manufacturing (32-311000) |
3221 |
32-322100 | Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills | AE AHE, AE AWH, WE | Paper and paper products (32-322000) |
3222 |
32-322200 | Converted paper products | AE AHE, AE AWH, WE | Paper and paper products (32-322000) |
322211 | 32-322211 | Corrugated and solid fiber boxes | AE AHE, AE AWH, AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, PE AWOH, WE | Paperboard containers (32-322210) |
324 |
32-324000 | Petroleum and coal products | AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, PE AWOH | Nondurable goods (32-000000) |
32411 |
32-324110 | Petroleum refineries | WE | Petroleum and coal products (32-324000) |
32412,9 |
32-324190 | Asphalt paving and roofing materials and other petroleum and coal products | WE | Petroleum and coal products (32-324000) |
3252 |
32-325200 | Resin, rubber, and artificial fibers | AE AHE, AE AWH | Chemicals (32-325000) |
32611 |
32-326110 | Plastics packaging materials, film, and sheet | AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Plastics products (32-326100) |
312,6 | 32-329000 | Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing | AE AWOH, PE, PE AHE, PE AWH, PE AWOH | Nondurable goods (32-000000) |
443141 |
42-443141 | Household appliance stores | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Electronics and appliance stores (42-443000) |
443142 |
42-443142 | Electronics stores | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Electronics and appliance stores (42-443000) |
52221 |
55-522210 | Credit card issuing | WE | Nondepository credit intermediation (55-522200) |
52222 |
55-522220 | Sales financing | WE | Nondepository credit intermediation (55-522200) |
5322 |
55-532200 | Consumer goods rental | AE AHE, AE AWH | Rental and leasing services (55-53200) |
5323 |
55-532300 | General rental centers | AE AHE, AE AWH | Rental and leasing services (55-53200) |
54186 |
60-541860 | Direct mail advertising | AE AHE, AE AWH, WE | Advertising and related services (60-541800) |
54192 |
60-541920 | Photographic services | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Other professional and technical services (60-541900) |
54193,9 |
60-541990 | Miscellaneous professional and technical services | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Other professional and technical services (60-541900) |
56174 |
60-561740 | Carpet and upholstery cleaning services | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Services to buildings and dwellings (60-561700) |
56179 |
60-561790 | Other services to buildings and dwellings | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Services to buildings and dwellings (60-561700) |
5622 |
60-562200 | Waste treatment and disposal | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Waste management and remediation services (60-562000) |
5629 |
60-562900 | Remediation and other waste services | PE, PE AHE, PE AWH | Waste management and remediation services (60-562000) |
LABSTAT, the BLS public database, contains all historical employment, hours, and earnings data revised as a result of this benchmark, including both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data. The data can be accessed at the CES-National database page.
Previously published data are available on both a not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted basis for all CES industries down to the 3-digit level from the CES Vintage Data page. CES vintage data are typically updated in early March following the annual benchmark revision.
Benchmarks for detailed industries can be found at the CES detailed industry tables page.
Last Modified Date: May 6, 2022